Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Streak watch

Rockies win 6-4, sweeping the NLCS, and opening the playoffs 7-0, as the Reds did in 1976. The Reds, however, got to stop there. The Rockies still have a World Series to play.

What were the odds of them getting this far? A relatively quick mangling of everyone's run totals and the Pythagorean formula gives me probabilities for the Rockies beating each opponent in a single game:

Padres: 0.51
Marlins: 0.61
Dodgers: 0.55
D-backs: 0.57

So maybe Colorado was the class of this field all along? It's been a strange season.

If we grant the Mets collapse and the Brewers taking two of three from the Padres, the Rockies still needed to take all three from San Diego, and lose at most one game to the Dodgers, D-backs, and Marlins after September 15. That gives us the probability of getting past SD with no need for a playoff: 0.00023. And the probability of losing just one, not to the Padres, and making a playoff: 0.0020. Then there's the need to win that playoff. So the probability of the Rockies being in the postseason at all was something like 0.00125 after September 15- about 1 chance in 800. That's slim indeed.

Next up: the playoffs. But for now, I have to do some real work.

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