Stat of the day

About 5 years ago, someone pointed out that the Cleveland Browns had gone through more starting centers in pre season camp than the Pittsburgh Steelers had since the AFL/NFL merger. I think the numbers were 4 and 3, but don't quote me.

In that spirit, today's stat, courtesy Sports Illustrated: since the end of the 2007 season, Brett Favre has more retirements (3) than the Detroit Lions have wins (2).

Seriously.

Brewers pitching ugly

Milwaukee's last four games look like this:

at Atl, L, 6-11
at Pit, W, 3-1
at Pit, L, 9-11
at Pit, L, 3-15

Even with that win, and a sterling start from Capuano, that's 38 runs given up in four games. Bad? Yes. But historically bad? Not even close. Let's not forget the Cubs, who gave up 10+ runs three games in a row twice in 1998, and twice again in 1999. The last of those came during this magical stretch from June 29 to July 3:

vs Mil, L, 6-17
vs Mil, W, 5-4
vs Mil, L, 12-19
at Phi, L, 1-14
at Phi, L, 8-21

Yes, the Cubs gave up 75 runs in five games. Granted, this was during the truly steroidal era of the late 90s, but... 75 runs? 75??? That's something Wrigleyville can really be proud of.

Or maybe not...

Apparently the Commissioner's office is looking at the possibility of changing the call, wiping out everything that happened afterwards, and declaring this a perfect game. Could be Armando Galarraga's lucky day.

Not sure what to think. On the one hand, that's the Right Thing To Do. On the other hand, it opens up a Huge Can Of Worms.

Take one for the record books

With Craig Biggio's painful march towards history, via first base, having ended two shy of Hughie Jennings' venerable hit by pitch record, the active HPB leader is Jason Kendall. Here's the top five all time:

1. Hughie Jennings 287
2. Craig Biggio 285
3. Tommy Tucker 272
4. Don Baylor 267
5. Jason Kendall 249

Kendall, the Kansas City catcher, is 36 and was hit 17 times last year. If he can last another two or three seasons after this one, he has a shot at the record. But it's tough for a catcher to keep a starting spot at this age. The next active players on the list:

14. Jason Giambi 165
20. Alex Rodriguez 150
21. Derek Jeter 144

If people start plunking 34 year old A-Rod with a serious vengeance, he could make a charge at the record (and the mound), but it's pretty unlikely. It's a long, long way down to anyone else getting hit at a record setting rate. And, as the New York Times points out, with the steroid era winding down, HBPs are in decline too. Biggio fell short of history - let's all cheer on Jason Kendall.

Basketbrain

Michael Lewis has an excellent piece in the NY Times about Shane Battier, and some smarter analytic thinking taking hold in the NBA, much as it did in baseball.

Can the new iris ball be far behind?

0 for the season

The Detroit Lions fought gamely after a horrible start, but went down 31-21 at Green Bay. And with that, the 0-14 1976 Tampa Bay Bucs are no longer alone. Detroit, 0-16 for 2008, has slumped from merely awful to historically awful. Since a 9-7 season in 2000, the Lions have gone 31-97. And to think that half way through last season we were wondering if Detroit might make the playoffs. Of course, that was before they lost seven of their last eight games.

But that was mere prelude. 2008 was the full, epic tragedy.

RIP, 2008 Lions. Better days await.

Silver Ball update

Oklahoma State, in their third challenge for the ball this year, hung around for ages, getting as close as 44-41 down late in the game. But they lost 61-41 in the end. The seemingly unstoppable Sooners successfully defended the title for the first time in history.

Now, thanks to a 3 way tie with Texas and Texas Tech, we watch the BCS rankings to decide if they'll defend against Mizzou in the Big 12 title game, or wait for a bowl...

Incidentally, with a massive 102 points in that game, the total in Silver Ball games this season is now 846. The record is 935, and there may be two games left.

More on the Silver Ball

With Oklahoma due to face Oklahoma State this weekend, and very likely (if they win) to play in the Big 12 Championship, and with the winner of that game bowl bound no matter what happens, there is an outside shot at a Silver Ball record.

In the 2005 season, with USC playing in every Silver Ball game and winning all but the last (against Texas in the Vince Young Rose Bowl), some 935 points were scored in Silver Ball contests. So far this year, with a possible three games remaining, 744 points have been scored. Keep an eye on the scoreboard...

The 1888 season is worthy of special mention. A quite sizable 694 points were scored in Silver Ball matches that season - every one of them by Yale. Their hapless and scoreless opponents: Wesleyan (three times), Rutgers, Penn (twice), Amherst (twice), Williams, MIT, Stevens, Crescent AC, and Princeton.

What are the odds?

The NY Times reports that of the 70 teams that have been behind 3 to 1 in a League Championship Series, only 10 have come back to win the series.

That sounds daunting, at first.

But, if the teams are the same standard, we would expect 1 in 8 to come back from 3-1 down and win it all.

Further, we'd expect that more often the better team is the one with the 3-1 lead.

Bearing this in mind, 1 in 8 should be the upper bound for the chances of winning from 3-1 down. So how is it that 1 team in 7 has managed the feat?

Blind luck? Some factor involving home field? Do the leading teams start using different and less effective tactics? Do the trailing teams abandon their previous tactics for something better?

Any and all hypotheses gratefully accepted...

And in good news for historians...

MLB and the MLBPA lost their appeal against CBC Distribution and Marketing, a company which runs fantasy sports leagues. In short, MLB and the players wanted to be paid for the use of names and statistics. Fortunately, two courts have now ruled that names and associated statistics are a matter of historical record, not of copyrighted content.

The stance of the players and owners in this matter is not merely greedy, it's completely ridiculous. Are names and numbers of the fallen in Iraq copyrighted by the US Army? Are stock prices copyrighted by the New York Stock Exchange?

I won't be sending money to the descendants of the members of the Atlantic Base Ball Club any time soon...

Stats for stinkers

With credit going to Neil deMause, whose idea this was orginally, we wish to propose two new baseball statistics, specifically for pitchers. These are the SUJ (Stunk Up the Joint) and CAW (Cheap Ass Win). The need for these statistics should be clear- we want to know when pitchers really sucked, and further, when they were really undeservedly lucky.

So:

An SUJ shall be awarded to any pitcher whose runs allowed exceeds innings pitched in a single appearance, provided he allows at least three runs. Both earned and unearned runs count.

A CAW shall be awarded to any pitcher who is awarded a W (Win) in the same appearance as an SUJ or a BS (Blown Save).

Now, we just need someone with a good perl script and serious knowledge of retrosheet to give us single season and career leaders for this sort of thing. We are very curious...