After Boston obliterated Colorado in game 1, we need to remember that it's just one game, and that the two highest game 1 winning margins before this were scored by the 1996 Braves and the 1959 White Sox, who each lost the series in six games. So, I'm sticking to my model. Here are the updated probabilities:
Red Sox in 4: 0.17
Red Sox in 5: 0.23
Red Sox in 6: 0.20
Red Sox in 7: 0.15
Rockies in 7: 0.12
Rockies in 6: 0.09
Rockies in 5: 0.04
In total, Red Sox win: 0.75, Rockies win: 0.25.
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