Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Streak watch part 2

As promised, a look at the Rockies during the playoffs. Using the same method as before, I have the following probabilities of Colorado winning a single game against these opponents:

Philadelphia: 0.52
Arizona: 0.57

These series aren't much of a discriminator. These chances translate to a 0.54 probability of beating the Phillies in a best of five series, and 0.65 of beating the D'backs in a best of seven. Which leaves us with a 0.35 shot at making the World Series- quite respectable.

But that's not why we've noticed the Rockies. Nor is it the revolutionary evangelical principles of the organization. It's the fact that they've swept the playoffs - and that is much less likely. 0.14 to sweep the Phils, 0.11 the D'backs: just 0.015 to reach the World Series unscathed.

Combine that with the probability of them having gotten to the postseason in the first place, and the miracle becomes clear: after the games of September 15, there was just a 0.0000185 chance I'd have reason to write this post- roughly one shot in 54,151.

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