Monday, November 12, 2007

And then there were two

The Rams showed us a glimpse of the once hyped revival of the Greatest Show on Turf and gave up a shot at history by wiping the floor with the supposedly improved Saints. But New England enjoyed a bye and Miami contrived to lose an awful game against Buffalo, so two remain in the chase*. Updated chances for running the table:

New England (needs 7 wins): 0.35
Miami (needs 7 losses): 0.08

Why, you may ask, has New England's chance improved when they didn't do anything? It all depends on points for and against. I've updated the numbers to reflect this week's scores, and the Patriots' remaining schedule looks a little easier than it did a week ago. Remember these are estimated probabilities, and estimates change as new information comes in.

In other pro football news, I am always put off by the results of close games being put down to character or the will to win rather than some element of luck, but what the hell was Adam Vinatieri thinking? As for Peyton Manning - six interceptions? And Phillip Rivers passed for 104 yards and won? He's the new Rex Grossman. No-one had the will to win this game.

* NASCAR reference intentional

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