Same old Nets

The Bulls returned the Nets to reality last night, pounding them into the court. The outright record may have been staved off, but there is work to do to avoid a tie, with NJ at 9-64 with nine games to go.

Chances of winning 9 games exactly: 31%
Chances of winning 10 or more games: 69%

Also, in NCAA news, with Kentucky's loss my bracket is now officially tapped out at 49 points, setting a lifetime record for my worst ever performance. I am not thrilled.

Nets tie '76ers with 10 games left

With a huge sigh of relief, the suddenly hot New Jersey Nets stayed cool in the clutch, making a seemingly endless parade of free throws to hold off the Pistons, 118 to 110. Now 9-63, the Nets cannot set a new record for single season futility. Can they still tie the record? They'd need to lose their last 10:

Chances of winning 9 games exactly: 26%
Chances of winning 10 or more games: 74%

I'm happy for them. It's been an awful, awful season and they have never stopped trying.

Nets turn the corner?

The Nets beat up the Kings in New Jersey tonight, improving to 8-63 and dramatically decreasing their estimated probability of taking the new NBA loss record. The latest:

Chances of winning 8 games exactly: 27%
Chances of winning 9 games exactly: 38%
Chances of winning 10 or more games: 36%

Apologies for the effects of rounding error...

Latest on the Nets

Following last night's loss to Miami and accompanying paper bag incident, the Nets stand at 7-63. Here are the latest stats:

Chances of winning 8 or fewer games: 66%
Chances of winning 9 games exactly: 23%
Chances of winning 10 or more games: 11%

One step closer?

The New Jersey Nets lost again tonight, 100-90 to the Toronto Raptors. The Nets dropped to 7-62, with 13 games still to play. Using a crude binomial method, I have estimated the probability of NJ setting a new standard for NBA futility. Remember, they are chasing the '76ers classic 9-73 mark.

Chances of winning 8 or fewer games: 61%
Chances of winning 9 games exactly: 25%
Chances of winning 10 or more games: 14%

I'll try to keep this updated as the season winds down.

Anyone interested in a trip to East Rutherford to catch a piece of history?

And speaking of losing streaks

Following on from last year's look at the Dolphins and Rams, it's time to ask: can the Detroit Lions go 0-16? Once again, we'll use the Pythagorean method for football. Here are their remaining games and the estimated probability of losing:

Vikings - 86%
Colts - 84%
Saints - 86%
Packers - 87%

That all adds up to a 54% chance of going all the way without a win. GO LIONS!

Interesting to note that the four opponents are all of very similar estimated strength, although they have won 5, 6, 7, and 8 games.

What are the odds?

The NY Times reports that of the 70 teams that have been behind 3 to 1 in a League Championship Series, only 10 have come back to win the series.

That sounds daunting, at first.

But, if the teams are the same standard, we would expect 1 in 8 to come back from 3-1 down and win it all.

Further, we'd expect that more often the better team is the one with the 3-1 lead.

Bearing this in mind, 1 in 8 should be the upper bound for the chances of winning from 3-1 down. So how is it that 1 team in 7 has managed the feat?

Blind luck? Some factor involving home field? Do the leading teams start using different and less effective tactics? Do the trailing teams abandon their previous tactics for something better?

Any and all hypotheses gratefully accepted...

And then there was one

With Miami breaking the hearts of 1976 Bucs fans everywhere, the last unbroken streak rests with the New England Patriots. Can they go 16-0?

New England (needs 2 wins): 0.82

And for the coming weekend:

New England wins vs Miami: 0.95

We were robbed of an epic clash of streaks there, too. I know what everyone really wants to know is, can the Patriots go 19-0? It's hard to say from here, with all the possible permutations. But I'll get on that when the playoffs are set.

Late NFL streak update

The Patriots appear to be coming back to the pack a little, failing to pummel either Philadelphia or Baltimore in recent weeks. As a result, our formulas still rate them less than a 50% shot at running the table. The biggest challenge is this week against the Steelers. Miami, on the other hand, looks worse than ever after being blown out by the Jets. Again, the biggest stumbling block comes first against the weak Bills.

If the streaks survive this week, look for skyrocketing chances in the next update.

New England (needs 4 wins): 0.45
Miami (needs 4 losses): 0.23

And for the coming weekend:

New England wins vs Pittsburgh: 0.59
Miami loses vs Buffalo: 0.55

Multi purpose update

I'm in the UK for another 4 days, catching lots of music but no soccer matches. In the match I had wanted to see, Liverpool defeated Bolton Wanderers 4-0. I don't know whether to laugh or cry.

In other news, Arkansas, possibly the first Silver Ball incumbent to fire its coach, awaits a postseason matchup. If only the powers that be knew how important this trophy is, the various Bowl officials might be fighting harder to sign the Razorbacks up.

In a matter of minutes, we'll hear who plays Ohio State for the "national title." Now more meaningless than ever, it's your BCS.

I see the Jets pounded the Dolphins. Ouch. That will increase Miami's estimated table-running chances substantially, with them overcoming a serious shot at winning a game and taking a PF/PA ratio pounding, but we'll have to wait a few more days to run the numbers.

Yet another streak update

The mighty Miami Dolphins continue to slide towards a perfect season for their opponents, now 0-11. Psychologically, last night must have been a crushing blow. They gave it everything. Ex Steeler Joey Porter played a superb game, making tackles, chasing down runners, batting down passes, and generally being everywhere except in the way of that one deadly field goal. But the Dolphins should take heart - they may be 0-11, but the fact is their PF/PA ratio is slightly better than both the 2-9 Jets and the very lucky 5-6 Bills, their next two opponents.

So, the latest chances:

New England (needs 5 wins): 0.48
Miami (needs 5 losses): 0.09

And for the coming weekend:

New England wins vs Baltimore: 0.94
Miami loses vs New York Jets: 0.49

And on a much more serious note, RIP Sean Taylor. Something very strange is going on there. Phone lines cut? That sounds a lot more like premeditated murder than burglary gone wrong. I hope the police figure this out, very soon.

Post scare streak update

After the Eagles gave the Patriots a mighty battle, I thought a Monday morning update was called for. New England gets through another game, but their PF/PA ratio takes a hit, and with that, the path looks a little tougher. Miami, on the other hand, seems to have an easier schedule than we thought last week.

New England (needs 5 wins): 0.48
Miami (needs 6 losses): 0.08

And a reminder:

Miami loses vs Pittsburgh: 0.92

NFL streak watch

New England stayed on course by destroying Buffalo, while Miami meekly surrendered to an injury hit Philadelphia team. So, the new probabilities:

New England (needs 6 wins): 0.46
Miami (needs 6 losses): 0.10

And while I'm at it, for this week:

New England wins vs Philadelphia: 0.89
Miami loses vs Pittsburgh: 0.92

Don Shula's guys might not be sending champagne this year, the way the Patriots are playing. But then, we thought that about Indy a couple of years ago, too.

And then there were two

The Rams showed us a glimpse of the once hyped revival of the Greatest Show on Turf and gave up a shot at history by wiping the floor with the supposedly improved Saints. But New England enjoyed a bye and Miami contrived to lose an awful game against Buffalo, so two remain in the chase*. Updated chances for running the table:

New England (needs 7 wins): 0.35
Miami (needs 7 losses): 0.08

Why, you may ask, has New England's chance improved when they didn't do anything? It all depends on points for and against. I've updated the numbers to reflect this week's scores, and the Patriots' remaining schedule looks a little easier than it did a week ago. Remember these are estimated probabilities, and estimates change as new information comes in.

In other pro football news, I am always put off by the results of close games being put down to character or the will to win rather than some element of luck, but what the hell was Adam Vinatieri thinking? As for Peyton Manning - six interceptions? And Phillip Rivers passed for 104 yards and won? He's the new Rex Grossman. No-one had the will to win this game.

* NASCAR reference intentional

Streak watch: 3 for the price of 1

Much has been written about the Patriots and their shot at immortality, going undefeated through the season. The postseason possibilities are too numerous to bother with at this point, but using Bill James' Pythagorean formula, adapted for football, and again mucking about with point totals to cater for opponents of differing standards, we can track New England week by week for the regular season, at least.

But we can do better than that. Not only are the Pats chasing the 1972 Dolphins, the Rams and the present day Dolphins are both chasing the magnificently awful 1976 Buccaneers. In going 0-14, Tampa Bay was shut out five times, gave up more than 40 points five times, and just once scored 20 points.

So, what are the chances of these teams running the table?

New England (needs 7 wins): 0.31
Miami (needs 8 losses): 0.05
St. Louis (needs 8 losses): 0.21

I'll update this one every week. Stay tuned...

Last odds update

Latest World Series probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 1.00

You have four last chances

The sad demise of 2007's apparent team of destiny continued with a 10-5 loss in front of the bepurpled faithful in Denver. It was interesting for a half inning or so, too. Updated probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 0.55
Red Sox in 5: 0.25
Red Sox in 6: 0.11
Red Sox in 7: 0.05
Rockies in 7: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.96, Rockies win: 0.04.

Free food

Tense. Very tense. I don't even care who wins, and I was nervous right through that game. 2-1 Boston, and a more importantly a free 77c crunchy beef taco for America! Sorry, vegans, no substitutions allowed. And now, the latest Series chances:

Red Sox in 4: 0.31
Red Sox in 5: 0.27
Red Sox in 6: 0.18
Red Sox in 7: 0.11
Rockies in 7: 0.09
Rockies in 6: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.87, Rockies win: 0.13.

World Series odds update

After Boston obliterated Colorado in game 1, we need to remember that it's just one game, and that the two highest game 1 winning margins before this were scored by the 1996 Braves and the 1959 White Sox, who each lost the series in six games. So, I'm sticking to my model. Here are the updated probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 0.17
Red Sox in 5: 0.23
Red Sox in 6: 0.20
Red Sox in 7: 0.15
Rockies in 7: 0.12
Rockies in 6: 0.09
Rockies in 5: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.75, Rockies win: 0.25.

Just one more

What can I say? I get excited about the World Series. So, here are the Vegas odds with the corresponding probability you'd need to make each one a fair bet:

Red Sox in 4: 7/2, 0.22
Red Sox in 5: 3/1, 0.25
Red Sox in 6: 7/2, 0.22
Red Sox in 7: 5/1, 0.17
Rockies in 7: 11/2, 0.15
Rockies in 6: 5/1, 0.17
Rockies in 5: 7/1, 0.13
Rockies in 4: 8/1, 0.11

Check the chances in my last post, and note the apparent lack of a bookie's edge on the Red Sox in seven. If you must bet (and if you bet based on anything I say, you are indeed brave), that's where to place your cash.