Nightmare in the Hub

The Bruins were up three games to none, and lost to the Flyers. The Celtics were up three games to none... now it's three to two... and remember the Celtics led the Magic three to two last year, and lost the series. Could two Boston teams really choke up 3-0 leads in the same season? Really?

Red Sox fans: you might want to miss the playoffs this year.

The evil of banality

Manny and Big Papi have joined the 2003 Leaked Names List, finally putting an official aura of anabolic steroids around 2004's Fellowship of the Bloody Sock. All of which ticks off Curt Schilling, but not nearly as much as the mealy mouthed excuses and half denials:

Female estrogen? I didn’t know what I was taking? I had no idea it was steroids? Do you honestly for one second think ANY player, ANY professional athlete who has been caught up in this allowed a cream to be rubbed, a needle to be stuck, or a pill to be taken and wasn’t aware that the substance was or was not a steroid?

Fans of Barry Bonds, the King of Control Freaks, take note.

Manny, of course, has already joined the Hall of Denial this year in L.A. And Ortiz always looked suspicious to me. The boost in numbers from his Twins career to his Red Sox career seemed a lot better than just a switch to Fenway Park would suggest. Here's his OPS+, which is park adjusted, as a Twin and a Red Sok:

Year  Age   G       OPS+
1997  21   15  MIN  107
1998  22   86  MIN  111
1999  23   10  MIN  -43
2000  24  130  MIN  101
2001  25   89  MIN  106
2002  26  125  MIN  120
2003  27  128  BOS  144
2004  28  150  BOS  145
2005  29  159  BOS  158
2006  30  151  BOS  161
2007  31  149  BOS  171
2008  32  109  BOS  123
2009  33   93  BOS   82

See a bright line there from 2003 to 2007? It's hard to spot, but try.

Here's Joe Torre's reaction, by the way:

I don’t think fans need to get chapter and verse on each individual and why and how much and when. We need to get their trust. I don’t think they need that information. I think they just need to know we’re doing everything we can to get this game back to where we want to have it.

That's so much garbage. Torre must think the guys at retrosheet spent the 1980s saying, "I'm not sure precisely how many hits Ty Cobb had in his career, but that's cool. I can let it be."

Chapter and verse is exactly what a large proportion of baseball fans need. We need to know exactly what happened, every season, every game, every play, every pitch, every trade, every minor change in uniform logo, every drug test, everything.

Screw your self-serving and idiotic confidentiality agreements. Tell us. Tell us everything.

Dom Dimaggio, RIP

The youngest of the Dimaggio brothers is gone. A sad day for Red Sox fans, and fans of any player whose greatness was unfairly overshadowed. Dom Dimaggio was a fine hitter and a superb center fielder, and he will be missed.

John Updike, adieu

John Updike, author of many great books and essays, died today aged 76. Of particular interest to us was his wonderful piece on Ted Williams' final outing at Fenway Park, Hub Fans Bid Kid Adieu.

A finer baseball story has not yet been written.

Bad news for the Yankees

Theo Epstein has signed a new contract as Red Sox GM. Neither he nor the team is revealing the terms, but he's the best and brightest product of the sabermetrics era, with a bunch of wins to show for it. And many more to come, I'll bet.

I wish Paul dePodesta had worked out so well...

Rays 7, Red Sox 8

In the words of Jack Buck:

I don't believe what I just saw!

Un. Be. Lievable.

Make that 7-7

Unbelievable.

And while I am at it...

Holy frijoles. What the hell is going on at Fenway?

5-0... 7-0... 7-1... 7-4... 7-6...

This will either be the tensest pennant clinching win since Sid Bream lumbered home or the most memorable comeback in postseason history.

Into the great unknown

The Red Sox took the leap, again, placing Doug Mirabelli on unconditional waivers today. Since they are not about to do the same with Tim Wakefield, I presume this means they think they have another knuckleball catcher available. AP suggests 30 year old Kevin Cash is the guy. We'll see. Don't be too surprised if another one sided trade for Mirabelli happens in mid April...

Last odds update

Latest World Series probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 1.00

You have four last chances

The sad demise of 2007's apparent team of destiny continued with a 10-5 loss in front of the bepurpled faithful in Denver. It was interesting for a half inning or so, too. Updated probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 0.55
Red Sox in 5: 0.25
Red Sox in 6: 0.11
Red Sox in 7: 0.05
Rockies in 7: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.96, Rockies win: 0.04.

Free food

Tense. Very tense. I don't even care who wins, and I was nervous right through that game. 2-1 Boston, and a more importantly a free 77c crunchy beef taco for America! Sorry, vegans, no substitutions allowed. And now, the latest Series chances:

Red Sox in 4: 0.31
Red Sox in 5: 0.27
Red Sox in 6: 0.18
Red Sox in 7: 0.11
Rockies in 7: 0.09
Rockies in 6: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.87, Rockies win: 0.13.

World Series odds update

After Boston obliterated Colorado in game 1, we need to remember that it's just one game, and that the two highest game 1 winning margins before this were scored by the 1996 Braves and the 1959 White Sox, who each lost the series in six games. So, I'm sticking to my model. Here are the updated probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 0.17
Red Sox in 5: 0.23
Red Sox in 6: 0.20
Red Sox in 7: 0.15
Rockies in 7: 0.12
Rockies in 6: 0.09
Rockies in 5: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.75, Rockies win: 0.25.

Just one more

What can I say? I get excited about the World Series. So, here are the Vegas odds with the corresponding probability you'd need to make each one a fair bet:

Red Sox in 4: 7/2, 0.22
Red Sox in 5: 3/1, 0.25
Red Sox in 6: 7/2, 0.22
Red Sox in 7: 5/1, 0.17
Rockies in 7: 11/2, 0.15
Rockies in 6: 5/1, 0.17
Rockies in 5: 7/1, 0.13
Rockies in 4: 8/1, 0.11

Check the chances in my last post, and note the apparent lack of a bookie's edge on the Red Sox in seven. If you must bet (and if you bet based on anything I say, you are indeed brave), that's where to place your cash.

World Series probablities

Again using the same method, it seems the Rockies will finally face a team which is (in theory) better than they are- in a given game, I rate the Red Sox a 55% chance of winning. Series probabilities are:

Red Sox in 4: 0.09
Red Sox in 5: 0.17
Red Sox in 6: 0.19
Red Sox in 7: 0.17
Rockies in 7: 0.13
Rockies in 6: 0.12
Rockies in 5: 0.09
Rockies in 4: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.62, Rockies win: 0.38. Bet on the Red Sox? Sure, but don't bet the house.