Phillies win, Phillies win, Phillies win

Which leaves Washington DC as the city with the longest title drought amongst those with teams in all four major American sports...

Phillies score again, up 4-3

Ok, so maybe it's all over now.

This aint over

I was in the middle of typing "it looks like the World's Serious is all over" when Rocco Baldelli tied the score with a home run.

Philadelphia is all of a sudden looking a little nervous... or maybe that's just the cold.

Reflecting on the World Series...

...which is pretty easy to do, with all the pools of water in the infield.

Despite a great deal of bellyaching about the World Series from various columnists, I've quite enjoyed it. Last night's game was tense as hell, saw the infield fly rule withdrawn due to wind and rain, saw a potential Selig-rule-change-by-fiat* that actually would have been good, and kept the series alive for at least one more day.

What's the slogan again? I'm loving it. Or is that McDonald's?

Of course, Bud could always decide to move the World Series permanently to a stadium with a roof. I hear there's one in Milwaukee.


* That is, altering the called-game rule so the World Series couldn't end that way - I think that's a rule change that should be in writing asap.

Last odds update

Latest World Series probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 1.00

You have four last chances

The sad demise of 2007's apparent team of destiny continued with a 10-5 loss in front of the bepurpled faithful in Denver. It was interesting for a half inning or so, too. Updated probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 0.55
Red Sox in 5: 0.25
Red Sox in 6: 0.11
Red Sox in 7: 0.05
Rockies in 7: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.96, Rockies win: 0.04.

Free food

Tense. Very tense. I don't even care who wins, and I was nervous right through that game. 2-1 Boston, and a more importantly a free 77c crunchy beef taco for America! Sorry, vegans, no substitutions allowed. And now, the latest Series chances:

Red Sox in 4: 0.31
Red Sox in 5: 0.27
Red Sox in 6: 0.18
Red Sox in 7: 0.11
Rockies in 7: 0.09
Rockies in 6: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.87, Rockies win: 0.13.

World Series odds update

After Boston obliterated Colorado in game 1, we need to remember that it's just one game, and that the two highest game 1 winning margins before this were scored by the 1996 Braves and the 1959 White Sox, who each lost the series in six games. So, I'm sticking to my model. Here are the updated probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 0.17
Red Sox in 5: 0.23
Red Sox in 6: 0.20
Red Sox in 7: 0.15
Rockies in 7: 0.12
Rockies in 6: 0.09
Rockies in 5: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.75, Rockies win: 0.25.

Just one more

What can I say? I get excited about the World Series. So, here are the Vegas odds with the corresponding probability you'd need to make each one a fair bet:

Red Sox in 4: 7/2, 0.22
Red Sox in 5: 3/1, 0.25
Red Sox in 6: 7/2, 0.22
Red Sox in 7: 5/1, 0.17
Rockies in 7: 11/2, 0.15
Rockies in 6: 5/1, 0.17
Rockies in 5: 7/1, 0.13
Rockies in 4: 8/1, 0.11

Check the chances in my last post, and note the apparent lack of a bookie's edge on the Red Sox in seven. If you must bet (and if you bet based on anything I say, you are indeed brave), that's where to place your cash.

World Series probablities

Again using the same method, it seems the Rockies will finally face a team which is (in theory) better than they are- in a given game, I rate the Red Sox a 55% chance of winning. Series probabilities are:

Red Sox in 4: 0.09
Red Sox in 5: 0.17
Red Sox in 6: 0.19
Red Sox in 7: 0.17
Rockies in 7: 0.13
Rockies in 6: 0.12
Rockies in 5: 0.09
Rockies in 4: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.62, Rockies win: 0.38. Bet on the Red Sox? Sure, but don't bet the house.

Season's end

The 1864 season is over at last, at least for another year. While Andrew... (what did you do on Sunday, anyway?) was absent, the Gotham Club of New York bravely ventured to far flung western New Jersey, there meeting calamitous defeat at the hands of the Atlantic Club, but then rallying with a fine 18 to 14 victory over Flemington's Neshanock Club. Now I can rest my dead right arm for six months, and hope that by next year it will remember how to swing a bat.

In less important baseball news, clubs founded in 1901 and 1993 meet tonight to begin the contest for the World Series. Personally, I don't feel it counts unless a team dates to at least the 1880s. That rules out the entire American League, of course, but then they have this idiotic courtesy batter, so I have no sympathy at all.

Lex clavitoris designati rescindena est.

If the junior circuit must do things differently, let them revive the foul bound, or run the bases clockwise, or re-introduce the idea of a "no call" on balls and strikes. Baseball is nine against nine, and anything else is simply wrong.