Last odds update

Latest World Series probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 1.00

You have four last chances

The sad demise of 2007's apparent team of destiny continued with a 10-5 loss in front of the bepurpled faithful in Denver. It was interesting for a half inning or so, too. Updated probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 0.55
Red Sox in 5: 0.25
Red Sox in 6: 0.11
Red Sox in 7: 0.05
Rockies in 7: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.96, Rockies win: 0.04.

Free food

Tense. Very tense. I don't even care who wins, and I was nervous right through that game. 2-1 Boston, and a more importantly a free 77c crunchy beef taco for America! Sorry, vegans, no substitutions allowed. And now, the latest Series chances:

Red Sox in 4: 0.31
Red Sox in 5: 0.27
Red Sox in 6: 0.18
Red Sox in 7: 0.11
Rockies in 7: 0.09
Rockies in 6: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.87, Rockies win: 0.13.

World Series odds update

After Boston obliterated Colorado in game 1, we need to remember that it's just one game, and that the two highest game 1 winning margins before this were scored by the 1996 Braves and the 1959 White Sox, who each lost the series in six games. So, I'm sticking to my model. Here are the updated probabilities:

Red Sox in 4: 0.17
Red Sox in 5: 0.23
Red Sox in 6: 0.20
Red Sox in 7: 0.15
Rockies in 7: 0.12
Rockies in 6: 0.09
Rockies in 5: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.75, Rockies win: 0.25.

Just one more

What can I say? I get excited about the World Series. So, here are the Vegas odds with the corresponding probability you'd need to make each one a fair bet:

Red Sox in 4: 7/2, 0.22
Red Sox in 5: 3/1, 0.25
Red Sox in 6: 7/2, 0.22
Red Sox in 7: 5/1, 0.17
Rockies in 7: 11/2, 0.15
Rockies in 6: 5/1, 0.17
Rockies in 5: 7/1, 0.13
Rockies in 4: 8/1, 0.11

Check the chances in my last post, and note the apparent lack of a bookie's edge on the Red Sox in seven. If you must bet (and if you bet based on anything I say, you are indeed brave), that's where to place your cash.

World Series probablities

Again using the same method, it seems the Rockies will finally face a team which is (in theory) better than they are- in a given game, I rate the Red Sox a 55% chance of winning. Series probabilities are:

Red Sox in 4: 0.09
Red Sox in 5: 0.17
Red Sox in 6: 0.19
Red Sox in 7: 0.17
Rockies in 7: 0.13
Rockies in 6: 0.12
Rockies in 5: 0.09
Rockies in 4: 0.04

In total, Red Sox win: 0.62, Rockies win: 0.38. Bet on the Red Sox? Sure, but don't bet the house.

Streak watch part 2

As promised, a look at the Rockies during the playoffs. Using the same method as before, I have the following probabilities of Colorado winning a single game against these opponents:

Philadelphia: 0.52
Arizona: 0.57

These series aren't much of a discriminator. These chances translate to a 0.54 probability of beating the Phillies in a best of five series, and 0.65 of beating the D'backs in a best of seven. Which leaves us with a 0.35 shot at making the World Series- quite respectable.

But that's not why we've noticed the Rockies. Nor is it the revolutionary evangelical principles of the organization. It's the fact that they've swept the playoffs - and that is much less likely. 0.14 to sweep the Phils, 0.11 the D'backs: just 0.015 to reach the World Series unscathed.

Combine that with the probability of them having gotten to the postseason in the first place, and the miracle becomes clear: after the games of September 15, there was just a 0.0000185 chance I'd have reason to write this post- roughly one shot in 54,151.

Streak watch

Rockies win 6-4, sweeping the NLCS, and opening the playoffs 7-0, as the Reds did in 1976. The Reds, however, got to stop there. The Rockies still have a World Series to play.

What were the odds of them getting this far? A relatively quick mangling of everyone's run totals and the Pythagorean formula gives me probabilities for the Rockies beating each opponent in a single game:

Padres: 0.51
Marlins: 0.61
Dodgers: 0.55
D-backs: 0.57

So maybe Colorado was the class of this field all along? It's been a strange season.

If we grant the Mets collapse and the Brewers taking two of three from the Padres, the Rockies still needed to take all three from San Diego, and lose at most one game to the Dodgers, D-backs, and Marlins after September 15. That gives us the probability of getting past SD with no need for a playoff: 0.00023. And the probability of losing just one, not to the Padres, and making a playoff: 0.0020. Then there's the need to win that playoff. So the probability of the Rockies being in the postseason at all was something like 0.00125 after September 15- about 1 chance in 800. That's slim indeed.

Next up: the playoffs. But for now, I have to do some real work.

And speaking of luck

The Arizona Diamondbacks' incredible luck seems to have deserted them, out-mojoed by the Rockies' ridiculous streak. For those not counting, Colorado has now won 20 of 21 games at the business end of the season, including just enough wins over division foes to force a one game playoff for the wild card spot (which they won) and now a 6-0 postseason start equalled only by the 1976 Big Red Machine.

After losing to the Marlins on September 15, Colorado was 3 games behind LA and Philadelphia, 4.5 behind San Diego, and 7.5 games behind the Mets. Then the miracle began: a four game sweep of the Dodgers, three from the Padres, three from the free falling Dodgers again, then a 4-2 loss to Arizona that put the Rockies two games back of San Diego with two to play. Milwaukee, down to their last strike, came back to stop the Padres, beat them again on Fan Appreciation Day, Colorado took the last two from the D-backs, everyone else lost enough games to help out, and bam! One game playoff. The rest is history still being written.

Will this bizarre run continue? Don't bet on it. But don't bet against it, either. I, for one, will be staying up very late tonight to find out.